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Indian Retail Market to Touch $1.8 trillion by 2030: IMAGES Group Report

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Organised retail is set to grow even faster, up from $ 156 billion (Rs.13,039 billion) to $ 328 billion (Rs.27,382 billion) by 2030, according to a report by IMAGES Group, which will be unveiled at the Phygital Retail Convention (PRC) next week

India is poised to become a force to reckon with on the global geopolitical and economic stage. The exuberance is also reflected in the hot retail sector, which has been registering a powerful comeback from the pandemic challenges of 2020-22. The Indian retail market is set to expand to $1.8 trillion (Rs.152,094 billion) in size by 2030, up from $ 1.01 trillion (Rs.84,874 Billion) in the financial year (FY) 2024. Organised retail is set to grow even faster, up from $156 billion (Rs.13,039 billion) to $328 billion (Rs.27,382 billion) by 2030, according to projections in a yet-to-be-launched report by IMAGES Group.

The landmark new research report—Retail in India: Inside the World’s Most Dynamic Consumer Landscape—is set to be unveiled at the upcoming Phygital Retail Convention (PRC) 2024 to be held in Mumbai next week.

The report notes how India’s retail market—both overall and organised—rebounded and the sector has not just recouped the losses suffered during the pandemic year, but in fact, grew over it.

The prospects for India’s overall economic growth in the coming years are bullish. All four key indices of the economy – GDP, Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE), retail and organised retail – have recorded robust growth from FY 2021-22 onwards, the report states.

The report contains in-depth analyses and commentaries from business intelligence leaders across public and private sector organisations. From macro-overviews to in-depth, quantitative and qualitative research on investment, infrastructure, domestic consumption, digitalisation and technology drivers—the report has covered all aspects of the retail ecosystem in India.

The report includes exclusive analyses and chapters by leading thought leaders, including T Koshy, MD & CEO, ONDC; Shruti Chandra, VP, Invest India, Ministry of Commerce & Industry; Anuj Puri, Chairman, ANAROCK group; Bhaskar Ramesh, Director – Omnichannel, Google India; Vidya Sen, NIQ BASES Lead, South Asia, NielsenIQ; K Ramakrishnan, Managing Director, Kantar; Shashank Rai Goel, Senior Principal, Kearney; and Bimal Sharma, Head — Retail, CBRE, South Asia.

As per IMAGES Research, the size of India’s retail market is estimated at Rs.84,874 billion in 2023-24, with the organised retail component estimated at Rs.13,039 billion, accounting for 15.4 % of the total retail pie in India. While the total retail market grew at an estimated 19.2% in FY24, organised retail expanded at a faster clip, at a CAGR (Compounded Annual Growth Rate) of 21%.

“Foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows into India have surged rapidly in recent years, positioning the country as the fastest-growing economy among G20 nations in 2024,” writes Shruti Chandra, VP, Invest India, Ministry of Commerce & Industry in her chapter.

“The robust FDI inflows witnessed over the past five years, including during the challenging pandemic years of 2020-2022, underscore the confidence of global multinationals (MNCs) in India’s growth trajectory,” she goes on to add.

T Koshy, CEO & MD, ONDC, writes on how the billions of dollars ploughed into the small and medium enterprises over the years are bound to have a positive cascading effect in the coming years and those investments would have a galvanizing impact on various other sectors.

“Of all investments for the small-scale sector, those in digital are likely to have disproportionate value and act as a multiplier for all other initiatives,” he points out in his chapter in the report.

“Governmental programs such as PM-Vishwakarma have called out digital as an enabler and can be channelised into an effective public-private partnership to make a lasting impact on this sector. Similarly, development agencies are also diverting a greater share of their funding towards digitisation,” he adds.

Referring to the dramatic transformations brought on by Artificial Intelligence, Bhaskar Ramesh, Director – Omnichannel, Google India writes: “AI is not a tomorrow thing, The AI-powered retail landscape will be shaped by players who combine a deep understanding of customer needs with strategic technological investment. With the high velocity of digitization, AI talent, thriving startup ecosystem and progressive enterprises, I believe India will be a centre of excellence for the world in shaping the future of AI-powered retail.”

The India of today is virtually a reflection of massive Public-Private Partnerships, which will complement each other’s initiatives. While the government on one side looks determined to elevate the country’s infrastructure, digitalisation and skilling opportunities, private companies on the other are leading from the front in entrepreneurship, next-generation consumer tech, and sheer innovation in products, services and retail concepts.

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