FMCG firms expect 5-6 pc drop in Q3 post note ban

FMCG firms expect 5-6 pc drop in Q3 post note ban

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Fast moving consumer goods companies are likely to report a 5-6 per cent drop in net profit during the third quarter due to the hit on sales that they witnessed post- drive in the run-up to the earnings season beginning this week, says a brokerage report.

FMCG firms expect 5-6 pc drop in Q3 post note ban
The Government had on November 8 banned old Rs 1,000 and Rs 500 banknotes worth around Rs 20.51 trillion, in a bid to control black money and counterfeit notes.

Kotak Institutional Equities in its pre-earnings season report on Thursday said:  “We expect the third quarter to be a dismal period for the companies as their aggregate revenue and net profits are likely to decline by 0.2 per cent and 5-6 per cent, respectively.”

The report attributes this fall to a 120 bps pretax aggregate pretax margin contraction, due to 50 bps contraction in aggregate gross margins owing to pick-up in raw material inflation, led by agri-inputs. This is despite the despite 30-40 bps cut in advertising and sales promotions budget.

The Government had on November 8 banned old Rs 1,000 and Rs 500 banknotes worth around Rs 20.51 trillion, in a bid to control black money and counterfeit notes.

The noteban has yanked a whopping Rs 1.2 trillion or 10.2 per cent from the market capitalization of consumer goods stocks since then. Out of this as much as Rs 99,000 crore value erosion are from FMCG stocks alone.

For the consumer goods sector as a whole, sales are down a whopping 40-70 per cent, according to analysts.

However, Kotak expects jewellery and paints companies to fare slightly better in terms of aggregate revenue in the reporting quarter.

“Overall, we expect discretionary companies to perform relatively better, especially jewellery and paints. We estimate aggregate revenues for discretionary companies to grow 1.5 per cent. For staples, we expect aggregate revenues to decline 1.5 per cent as we model volume decline across categories,” Kotak said.